THE FACTS POLITICIANS SEEM TO WANT TO AVOID.

In the UK politicians are starting to talk about downplaying climate change hoping it will appease voters in the next year before a general election. Pollution in London seen to be a vote looser in local elections, onshore wind not in my back yard thankyou, infrastructure for renewables priority reduced, new gas fields yes please as well as new coal fields. Scientists are predicting at current rates the world would almost certainly exceed the agreed maximum temperature rise of 1.5-2C. We would be lucky to get away with 2.5C. More likely, we’re heading towards 3C.That number positively frightens many climate scientists. But, as India starts stockpiling rice with a temperature rise of 1.2C, what useful advice can scientists offer for a 3C world? Just how bad will things be by then? Should holidaymakers avoid buying homes in Greece? China is vulnerable to extremes – how should its economy adapt? The US has considered itself less vulnerable. But tell that to New Yorkers choking on wildfire smoke, or people in Phoenix trapped under that heat dome. While immediate harm to people grabs the headlines, what’s even more destructive could be the impact of heat and humidity on food production for an expanding population. A global shift towards a plant-based diet could halve the land and water used for agriculture – and halve the carbon emissions – but politicians fear angering voters by recommending a dietary shift. Facing all this gloom means we need prophets as well as climatologists. Civilisation will still exist in the future, but with much worse living conditions. But what sort of a degraded civilisation might that be? By then we may even have triggered some natural tipping points that could result in a massive release of trapped methane in the tundra – let’s hope not. When prime ministers set the standards by building gas heated luxury swimming pools what hope have the residents of the Maldives got ?